Facts According to Jay Part 4

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Jay Baskins, see HERE, tells us about this little thing called A FACTOID, which he defines as:
A statement of presumed fact that people believe to be true because they hear it repeated over and over
The "pedophile" is unable to control himself and will always "re-offend".
Jay states that the ACTUAL fact is:
One of the most extensive studies on this issue is called "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994" It is available from the US Department of Justice. (Lanagan, P, Schmitt, E. and Durose, M., 2003) According to this study,, "Within the first three years following release from prison, 3.3% (141 of 4,296) of released child molesters were rearrested for another sex crime against a child.
Well now, before we get to the truly most extensive studies (since pedovores like to use terms like that, as though it adds an air of eminence) let's look at this DOJ report. Number one please keep in mind that this only covered these specific criminals over a 3 year period post release from prison. When you see the figure 3.3% recidivism for child molesters and don't actually read the report, it doesn't sound too bad does it? Well you should read the report. What you don't see (for one thing) in that 3.3% figure is all the prior convictions before THIS ONE.

Within 6 months following their release, 1.4% of the 9,691 men were rearrested for a new sex crime. Within 1 year the cumulative total grew to 2.1% rearrested. By the end of the 3-year followup period, altogether 5.3% had been rearrested for another sex crime.
Which brings me to my next point: Karl Hanson who has authored several major studies on recidivism (1995, 1998, 2002) has some startling information. In his 1995 A Comparison of Child Molesters and Nonsexual Criminals: Risk Predictors and Long-Term Recidivism Hanson writes:
Overall, 83.2% of the nonsexual criminals and 61.8% of the child molesters were reconvicted during the 15 to 30 year follow-up period of this study. The two groups tended to be reconvicted for distinct types of offenses. Almost all the sexual offense recidivism was in the child molester group (35% vs. 1.5% in the nonsexual criminal group) In general, prior offenses of a specific type predicted future offenses of the same type.

Hanson believes that
Child molesters may have different motivations to offend than do other criminals. He also says that in general, the rate of sexual offense recidivism among sexual offenders also tends to be low, about 10%-20% over 4 years, though it gradually increases with longer follow-up periods.

So this study, which included subjects released from prison beginning in 1958 were followed for no less than 15 years, and in some cases up to 30 years.

Further, Hanson found that substantial differences were found between the child molesters and non-sexual criminals included in this study. The child molesters were responsible for almost all (97%) of the sexual offense recidivism, whereas the nonsexual criminals were responsible for almost all (96%) of the nonsexual violent recidivism.
When the specific factors that predicted each type of recidivism were considered, there was a tendency for previous offenses of a given type to predict future offenses of the same type. The present study strongly suggests that child molesters are a distinct type of offender.

In his 1998 Meta-Analysis which provided recidivism information on 28,972 sex offenders followed over a period of 4-5 years, Hanson states that sexual offenders' motivation to change may also be related to recidivism. Those offenders who accept responsibility, express remorse, and comply with treatment should be at lower risk than those who deny any problems and actively resist change. The results of his 2002 study concerned the issue of recidivism as it related to age and followed 4,673 sexual offenders over a period of 30 years. His results were
"Although the observed sexual recidivism rates are only 10% to 15% after 5 years, the rates continue to increase gradually with extended follow-up periods." And asks the question "Do sexual offenders remain at risk throughout their lives, or is there some age limit after which their risks for recidivism is substantially reduced?"

This is the conclusion....
Recidivism risk of rapists steadily declines with age. In contrast the extrafamilial child molesters showed little reduction in recidivism risk until after the age of 50. The recidivism rate of intrafamilial child molesters were the lowest of all sex offender categories except in the 18-24 age group.

"The extent to which the recidivism rates of child molesters decreases with age is unknown. Given that most antisocial behavior declines with age, it is likely that the sexual recidivism rates of child molesters would similarly decline. A strong or exclusive sexual interest in children could contribute to a sustained level of risk until late adulthood."

Child molesters who only target intrafamilial victims (incest offenders) have consistently lower recidivism risk than do any other sexual offenders.

The sexual recidivism rate for the total sample was 17.5%. In the total sample the recidivism rate delined steadily with age. All the groups recidivated at different rates with incest offender recidivating less often (8.4%) than rapists (17.1%) and extrafamilial child molesters (19.5%)

Now for a couple of quick facts..........none of the incest offenders released after age 60 recidivated. The oldest recidivist (non incest sex offender) in the sample was released at age 72 and was reconvicted for a sexual offense the following year. (I guess some folks never learn)

As with other criminal behavior, the rate of sexual offending decreased with age. The rate of decline was rather gradual, however, and there were significant differences between types of sexual offenders.
Extrafamilial child molesters showed little decline in their recidivism risk until after the age of 50
Among the various factors linked to sexual offending, the three broad factors most relevant to this study are deviant sexual interests, opportunity, and low self-control. Deviant sexual interests are more common among extrafamilial child molesters than among incest offenders.

Dr. Jim Hopper believes that official government statistics are only "the tip of the iceberg." Concerning Child Sexual Abuse, he says Most abused and neglected children never come to the attention of government authorities. This is particularly true for neglected and sexually abused children, who may have no physical signs of harm. In the case of sexual abuse, secrecy and intense feelings of shame may prevent children, and adults aware of the abuse, from seeking help.

So how are we to know what to believe? Question, question, question everything! Don't take my word for it and surely not the pedovores. Remember the wise ol' saying....If it walks like a duck............
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